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Preface and Prerequisites
0.1
What is a conceptual introduction?
0.2
How to read a table or matrix
0.3
The Very Basic Math
0.4
Inspiration and Acknowledgments
1
Introduction
1.1
Some Basic Conceptual Ingredients
1.2
Rationality - the Descriptive and Normative
1.3
Uncertainty
1.4
Practical and Theoretical Problems
1.5
Summary
Exercises
2
Ranking
2.1
Maximin and Maximax
2.2
The Dominance Principle
2.3
More than two options and two states
2.4
Non-Unique Recommendations
2.5
Independence of Options and States
Exercises
3
Transitivity and Completeness
3.1
Notation
3.2
Money Pump Arguments for Axioms
3.3
Arguments for Transitivity
3.4
Arguments for Completeness
3.5
Social Choice
3.6
Limitations and Key Take Aways
Exercises
4
Utilities
4.1
Creating an Interval Scale
4.2
What do the numbers mean?
4.3
Applications and Challenges
4.4
More Challenges and Final Remarks
Exercises
5
Expected Utilities
5.1
Expected Utility by Example
5.2
(MEU) Maximize Expected Utility Strategy
5.3
Application: Combining MEU and the Multi-Attribute Approach
5.4
Pascal’s Wager
5.5
Key Take Aways
Exercises
6
Arguments about MEU
6.1
The Domain of MEU
6.2
Long Run Arguments for MEU
6.3
Two Kinds of Arguments Against MEU
6.4
Arguments Against Normative MEU
6.5
Arguments Against Descriptive MEU
6.6
Summary
6.7
Exercises
7
Intervention
7.1
Causal Models
7.2
Common Causes
7.3
Application to Newcomb-like Problems
7.4
The Locus of Choice and Types of Decision Theories
Exercises
8
Odds, Probabilities and Actions
8.1
Odds and Fair Betting Rates
8.2
Advantageous Bets
8.3
The Axioms of Probability and Dutchbooks
8.4
Application
Exercises
9
Probabilities and Logic
9.1
Measures
9.2
Normalized Measures
9.3
Possibilities and Truth Tables
9.4
Independence
9.5
Summary
9.6
Exercises
10
Conditional Probabilities and Likelihoods
10.1
Calculating Conditional Probability
10.2
Application: Monty Hall Problem
10.3
Independence
10.4
Likelihoods
10.5
Application: The Taxi Cab Problem
10.6
Exercises
11
Base Rates, Priors, and Bayes Rule
11.1
Bayes’ Theorem by Example
11.2
Application: Conditionalization
11.3
Advanced Application
Exercises
12
Learning and Motivated Reasoning
Chapter 12
Learning and Motivated Reasoning
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